It was another week filled with fear and greed. This time fear and greed was originated from a participant that out of the blue went to first place of the WTI with gains of 975% overnight. Like every thing that seems to good to be true, this was not true and was the fault of a bad tick on the end of day file. Mr Doleschall reacted immediately and took his gains to 827%, just in case...
This time of year is usually the best time of the year to be holding stocks, only this time we have a depressed sentiment and a challenging economy.
A few things need to be considered. The end of the carry trade is the first factor to be considered, where traders went long the yen and then borrowed at very low interest rates. There is a very strong correlation between the yen/euro and the SP500, that is probably the responsibility of hedge funds. Investors need to watch for this trend to be broken.
Macro themes related to the dollar are important because there is a possibility for the drop in the dollar to be near completion. If that happen commodity trades will suffer since much of the ascent in prices is apparently due to the weakness of the dollar. The price of oil needs to be followed because the price action of many energy stocks is diverging. Could this be a sign?