Stocks and crude oil made new highs for the year last week and, as usual, the dollar went even lower. Even a break in the Chinese market did nothing to derail major global stock markets. As we all remember from a few weeks ago, it was the Chinese “bull run” that was the catalyst for the optimism among global investors. US markets are now testing the 38% Fibonacci retracement, a very important landmark, and the same is happening with oil. Commodity currencies like the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar, however, have not confirmed their new highs.

Morgan Stanley recently evaluated the performance of 19 bear markets in different countries and concluded that the median fall from a market's peak is 56%, lasting 29 months. This crisis was ''only'' 18 months. The median bear market rebound is 70% over 17 months and the US market is up 51% in 5 months.